How Many Buildings Must Be Decarbonized?

A consideration of the number of buildings that need to be decarbonized in order for North America to meet its 2050 net-zero goals.

There are so many ways to consider the decarbonization of the built environment. For example, we can think of it in terms of dollars to be spent: McKinsey’s research shows that “the world will need to invest $9.2 trillion each year until 2050 to achieve net-zero emissions in the built environment.” Alternatively, we can consider it through the lens of of energy consumption: heat (which comprises half of the world’s energy consumption) vs. electricity (20%) vs. transportation (30%). Another relevant method of assessing the decarbonization of the built may be through the lens of process: developing zero-carbon new buildings or retrofitting existing buildings since existing structures will account for 80% of 2050’s predicted building stock.

While all of these are relevant, one of the simplest ways to consider the decarbonization of the built environment is through the number of buildings that need to be decarbonized. So, as part of our journey to create OVR-VU, we decided to dig deep into:

1. How many buildings in North America need to be decarbonized today?

2. How many buildings will need to be decarbonized across North America by 2050?

The results were, frankly, staggering. 

How Many Buildings In North America Need To Be Decarbonized Today?

Our approach to answering this question was, in theory, simple.

Step 1: identify how many buildings exist in North America today.

Step 2: identify how many of these buildings are already zero-carbon.

Step 1

To answer Step 1  a number of documents provided the necessary information. For US buildings, we used:

• The American Housing Survey for residential properties

• The US Energy Information Administration’s Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey for non-commercial buildings

• The Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey for industrial buildings

• The Department of Defense’s Base Structure Report for military buildings

• The Department of Agriculture’s Census of Agriculture for farmland

Combined, these provided the following:

• 100 million single family homes

• 5.2 million multi-family residential buildings (approx. 40 million housing units)

• 5.5 million commercial buildings

• 0.35 million industrial buildings

• 0.24 million military buildings

• 1.9 million farms and associated facilities (assuming 1 building per farm)

This amounts to between 111.29 (excluding farms and associated facilities) and 113.19 million (including farms and associated facilities) buildings in the US. 

In Canada, the search was easier. According to the Government of Canada website, Canada has over 16 million residential buildings, over 564,000 commercial and institutional buildings (including offices, retail and warehouses), and 34,000 government buildings.” If we add military buildings, this number remains relatively unchanged. Farmland adds an additional 0.2 million buildings.

This amounts to between 16.60 million buildings (excluding farms and associated facilities) and 16.80 million buildings (including farms and associated facilities). 

Therefore, at a conservative estimate, there are between 127.77 million and 129.87 million buildings in North America.

Of these millions of buildings, how many have been decarbonized? 

Less than 1%.

This means that, of 127.77 million buildings in North America, a maximum of 1.28 million buildings have been decarbonized.

This leaves 126.49 million buildings to decarbonize. 

How Many Buildings In North America Will Need To Be Decarbonized In North America By 2050?

Given that 80% of 2050’s predicted building stock exists today, this means that 159.71 million buildings will need to be decarbonized across North America by 2050.

Why Does This Matter?

In short, the magnitude of the problem is shocking. Available resources and current practices cannot address it, as evidenced by our lackluster performance as a planet regarding our 2050 goals.

We need to scale decarbonization.

The good news is this: over the past 10 years, regulatory changes have finally triggered a tsunami of demand for decarbonization. As a result, broad, high-level decarbonization strategies are rampant, from owners, operators, consultants, and sustainability experts. However, broad high-level strategies do not decarbonize. Pre-feasibility studies do. To decarbonize 159.71 million buildings, we need to scale access to the pre-feasibility studies that unlock decarbonization. 

This is OVR-VU’s mission: by combining the rigor of engineering with the power of software automation, OVR-VU produces dynamic pre-feasibility studies that identify optimal scenarios for LCOE, GHG emissions, capital costs, and operational costs, and updates them based on changing market conditions. Through these pre-feasibility studies, OVR-VU de-risks, maximizes asset value, and ultimately scales the decarbonization of the built.